On September 9, researchers at Anthropic released a report analyzing the impact of AI on the US economy, presenting three scenarios based on the speed of AI evolution and adoption.

The report analyzes the economic impact across three levels: "Modest," "Significant," and "Extreme." It states that large-scale unemployment would only occur in the "Extreme" scenario, where AI autonomously handles nearly all knowledge work and is rapidly adopted. In the "Modest" scenario, GDP is projected to increase by 1.6% by 2030 compared to a world without AI, while the "Extreme" scenario predicts a GDP increase of 32.4%.

Regarding the impact on wages, the report predicts that wages for knowledge workers would remain nearly flat (a 0.3% decrease) in the "Significant" scenario, whereas they would decrease by 11.5% in the "Extreme" scenario. Additionally, the researchers expressed the view that in the "Extreme" scenario, the unemployment rate would rise to 17.9% for knowledge workers and 11.9% overall.

Anthropic noted that these projections do not account for factors such as policy responses, business cycles, financial market disruptions, or the realization of "ultra-high-performance robots," and stated that the model has limitations.

Source: